The theory that would not die pdf download

The theory that would not die pdf download

The Theory That Would Not Die ebook PDF | Download and Read Online For

The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes’ Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy is a non-technical book that deals with the Baysian Statistics. Thomas Bayes (–) was a Reviews: Download the theory that would not die or read online books in PDF, EPUB, Tuebl, and Mobi Format. Click Download or Read Online button to get the theory that would not die book now. This site is like a library, Use search box in the widget to get ebook that you want. The Theory That Would Not Die. The Theory That Would Not Die Summary "This account of how a once reviled theory, Baye’s rule, came to underpin modern life is both approachable and engrossing" (Sunday Times). A New York Times Book Review Editors’ Choice.

The theory that would not die pdf download

Bayes' Rule is a mathematical formula that allows one to calculate a conditional probability such as the probability that a woman has breast cancer given that she has a postive mammogram.

It has many useful attributes, such as allowing one to updates ones estimates of a probability as you obtain new information, and can be adapted to deal with such basically non-numerical forms of information as expert opinion. One can also use it to estimate the probability of events that have not happened. One can also use it to estimate the probability of events that have not happened, such as a space shuttle blowing up in mid-air before the Challenger disaster.

Bayes rule has also been a subject of considerable controvery among academic statisticians throughout most of the twentieth century, with the controvery dying down since roughly the s. This controvery, aside from showing the ability of academics to be touchy over what to the rest of the world must seem like minor matters, is rooted in a difference of opinion over the intellectual foundations of statistics.

The frequentist school, as exemplified by R. Fisher, believed that probability is simply the relative frequency for example, how many heads you get from a long series of coin tosses. The idea that one could come up with a probability about something that had not happened was anathema to frequentists. Also, they objected to the typical starting point for a Bayesian analysis, the assumption that all possible hypotheses were equally likely.

The Bayesians, generally a minority view in academic circles, disapproved of the general frequentist approach of rejecting null hypotheses, as this approach actually involves extreme events that didn't actually appear in the data, the theory that would not die pdf download.

Bayes' Rule was kept alive in non-academic circles, and in academic disciplines outside of statistics.

In particular insurance actuaries, and most especially the military, found Bayes' rule very useful. Bayes' rule is apparently especially helpful in breaking codes. Given the secrecy of such endeavors, the degree of military research in statistics is hard to know. The development of powerful computers also made Bayesian analyeses more generally practical from the s onward. The book is less a discussion of statistical issues than a history of statistics, starting with the Reverend Thomas Bayes himself in the s.

Most of the text is about 20th century events. At the end is a description of current uses of Bayes' rule. The reason I gave it "two stars" is that its not obvious to me that most readers will be able to follow the more technical aspects, such as references to Bayesian filters and such despite the glossary near the end.

I think the historical approach results in less description and discussion of the statistical issues, and presumably the point of the book is to illuminate such matters.

The historical approach may be interesting I found much interesting material but I would assume that people who pick up a book on this topic would mainly be interested in understanding statistics, rather than the doings of statisticians.

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Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explo Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief.

In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace.

She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for years—at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War IIand explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the s proved to be a game-changer.

Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

Get A Copy. Hardcoverpages. More Details Other Editions Friend Reviews. To see what your friends thought of this book, please sign up. Lists with This Book. Community Reviews. Showing Average rating 3. Rating details. More filters. Sort order. Sep 03, rmn rated it it was ok Shelves: financial-math-non-fiction. If only I had known how to use Bayesian probabilities before reading this book I could have taken the probability of my liking a book well received in a NY Times Book Review as my prior, plugged that in to a Bayesian calculation as to whether or not I would like this book, and quickly would have come up with the answer "highly unlikely" and saved myself a few hours of my life.

Anyway, the annoyance of this book is the author pontificates on how great Bayes' Rule is without ever, you know, actually giving us a mathematical example. It's mindblowingly frustrating. The chapters basically read like this. Problem solved. Or, the US wanted to find a missing submarine so they used Bayes' Rule and there it was. Bayes' Rule could have been anything. The fact that the author does such a poor the theory that would not die pdf download of defining it and a poorer job of showing how it was actually used and some of the math behind it is irritating.

You could find and replace "Bayes' Rule" with "Johnson Rod" throughout the whole book and not lose anything. By keeping Bayes' Rule essentially as a black box, it becomes less interesting overall.

There was an attempt in the appendix to show a simple mathematical application of Bayes' Rule, which was helpful, but even that was screwed up as the verbal description of the variables did not match the equation numerators were flip-flopped on consecutive pages, doesn't change the outcome, but come on, you need consistency when showing the formula about which the entire book is written.

The history of Bayes' Rule is really what the book is about, and some of it is entertaining, but save yourself some time and just wikipedia it and you'll learn infinitely more in a shorter period of time. View all 5 comments. May 21, David rated it really liked it Shelves: mathematicshistorytechnology.

I think this is the first book about Bayes' theorem and its applications, for the general reader. The book does not explicitly state the theorem as a mathematical formula, until the second appendix.

However, the general idea is described, as well the general ideas behind it. The history of the theorem is described in some detail. The ebb and flow in belief in the theorem over the course of years is interesting. Applying Bayes theorem requires a prior probability, and this is often poorly know I think this is the first book about Bayes' theorem and its applications, for the general reader, the theory that would not die pdf download.

Applying Bayes theorem requires the theory that would not die pdf download prior probability, the theory that would not die pdf download, and this is often poorly known--it is often an educated, but subjective guess. Mathematicians and statisticians don't like guesses, they don't like subjectivity. As a result, the application of Bayes theorem was often in disrepute. But--despite the subjectivity, Bayes theorem usually works--and works very well!

It was also used effectively in anti-submarine warfare during the war, and in search and rescue operations.

But its usage was classified, and as a result its power was hidden from statisticians. In the past 20 years, Bayes theorem has really taken hold. I personally use it daily in my work, where it is extremely useful. I vaguely remember reading about the controversies surrounding it. Now, at long last, you can learn about the true nature of the controversies in this enjoyable book.

View all 6 comments. Oct 08, Michael rated it it was ok, the theory that would not die pdf download. As someone who actually works with Bayesian methods, I was very much looking forward to reading this book. The strange history of Bayes' Theorem had been briefly mentioned in other, the theory that would not die pdf download technical books I had read.

I finally wanted to the theory that would not die pdf download the whole story. Alas, that story, at least as presented in this book, turned out to be not quite so exciting. Except for the insights into Laplace's involvement, and in particular the interesting sections on Alan Turing's work, I found this to be a rather lifel As someone who actually works with Bayesian methods, I was very much looking forward to reading this book, the theory that would not die pdf download.

Except for the insights into Laplace's involvement, the theory that would not die pdf download, and in particular the interesting sections on Alan Turing's work, I found this to be a rather lifeless book.

With a bit of passion it could have easily been more of a page turner. The author also clearly struggled with the fact that she could not present a fully mathematical explanation and arguments for Bayesian methods due to targeting a lay audience. Hence, "Bayes", as she keeps calling the approach, remains a nebulous entity throughout the book, misrepresented as simply "adding prior information".

I cannot begin to imagine what a strange experience it must be to read this book if one has never worked with the formalism and its various benefits e. Still, I am thankful to the author and the publisher that she they at least tried to make a topic like this more accessible to the public. View 1 comment.

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The theory that would not die pdf download

Download the theory that would not die or read online books in PDF, EPUB, Tuebl, and Mobi Format. Click Download or Read Online button to get the theory that would not die book now. This site is like a library, Use search box in the widget to get ebook that you want. The Theory That Would Not Die. PDF | On Jun 1, , Howard Wainer and others published The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines and . The Theory That Would Not Die Book Description: Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief.